Let’s pretend that you are a marketing exec at a packaged goods company which is on the verge of launching a new, unique laundry detergent.  Now let’s pretend that I have put together two distinct groups of people to which you could market — but you can only choose one.  The first group is made up of women, aged 25-45 with an average of 1.7 children and average HH incomes above $75k.  The other group is made up of people who are all passionate about laundry and other household chores.  Which group would you pick?

Hopefully, anyone reading this post will choose the latter group…but I’m not sure this is going to be the case.  Many of you will instinctively select the group which is demographically “well defined.”  You will feel comforted by the numbers — the hard data.  This is because, for as long as any of us can remember, demographics have served as the key to marketing efficiency.  They were the light that would guide any campaign.  They represented ‘hard’ data which could and should not be questioned — and they demanded (and received) blind loyalty.  Just define your demographics and market to them — it was just that simple.

But is the proliferation of the social web enabling a “post-demographic” era for marketers?  Is it forcing people to rethink what demographics stand for and how they can and should impact marketing strategies?  I certainly think so…

The reality is that demographics are grounded in, as well as dependent on, some loose, simple assumptions.  Ultimately, demographic-based marketing is an attempt to achieve higher sales conversion rates.  The assumption being that people who fit a specific demographic profile are more likely to be interested in a certain product and therefore more likely to buy it — relative to people from a different demographic.  Marketing to a specific demographic would, in theory, provide “more bang” for your marketing buck.  Simply put, the assumption chain looks like this:

On face value, this assumption chain is logical, but often (like with all assumptions) flawed.  As you move from one assumption to the next in this chain, you lose accuracy.  And, by far, the largest “leap of faith” in this chain is the assumption that one’s demographic defines one’s interests.  Common sense says that the assumption connecting one’s interests to one’s purchasing behavior is a much safer and more accurate assumption.

But historically, locating people’s interests (in any scalable fashion) has been very difficult — near impossible.  So demographics became the de facto method for predicting purchasing behavior.  But today, with the social web, it is much more possible to locate interests and passions — bringing us one step closer to purchasing behavior.  We can now skip the middle-man.  Why worry about demographics when you don’t need to?  Why rely on a predictor of interests when you can uncover them directly?  (Unfortunately, because it’s safe — no one ever lost their job for buying IBM OR creating a demographic-based marketing strategy).

So, is there something wrong with demographic thinking?  Well, not really.  It’s just a bit dated (like Don Draper’s wet bar).  Will the concept of demographics go the way of the printed newspaper?  Probably not.  Demographic thinking is still necessary & valid in some cases, but we will start to see its importance diminish quite rapidly in the coming years.  Even today, demographics should only be one piece of the puzzle, not the whole thing.  We need to realize that what really matters is one’s interests & passions.  NOT one’s age or gender.

A good example of this is a question we’re often asked at Traackr.  Lately we’ve been approached by a lot of clients looking to target today’s hottest demographic — Mommy Bloggers.  The problem with “targeting” Mommy Bloggers is that it is a useless exercise.  There are many Mommy Bloggers out there, however the only thing they have in common is that they are women; have children; and write a blog.  Other than that, they are as different as peanut butter and tennis shoes.  Some Mommy Bloggers blog about high fashion, some about politics, some about technology, some about local diaper deals, etc.  The range of their interests and passions are endless as are the reasons people follow them.  What’s important is understanding one’s passions and what he or she likes to talk about.  Knowing one’s passions is the key to understanding who they are.  And knowing who they are is MUCH MORE important than knowing what they are…

So, are you a male advertising or marketing executive over the age of 50 with annual household income above $150k living in or around a major metropolitan city?  If so, I don’t care.  The real question is whether or not you are someone who is passionate about the future of marketing and the way the social web is and will continue to affect it.  That’s what really matters.

Other than that, you can be a dog for all I care…

DS

The above cartoon by Peter Steiner has been reproduced from page 61 of July 5, 1993 issue of The New Yorker, (Vol.69 (LXIX) no. 20)

We attended the Gravity Summit event at Harvard this week and I have to give both @rumford and @beverlymacy credit for putting together such a nice event.  It was much smaller and more intimate than most social media/Web 2.0 events and thus very easy for everyone to interact.  I even got to hang out with @MCHammer for a while at the afterparty.  Pretty cool!

The speakers offered good analysis and thorough case studies taken from the social media marketing world.  I took notes to share with those who couldn’t make it.  Here they are (in all their random glory):

Troy Kelly – Ad Exec., Arnold Worldwide

Troy presented good case studies from his work on the Truth, McDonalds Filet of Fish & Ocean Spray campaigns.

• For Truth, Arnold built off-site web apps that could be passed around. Results: 50% of the online traffic for this campaign was on the Truth site,  50% was off the site.  Lesson: Find the audience where they are and go after them.
• For Filet of Fish, they build a Facebook page that reached over 50k fans very quickly.  They released early special Filet of Fish content to this group and allowed them to comment/give feedback on the campaign.
• For Ocean Spray, they used a community of “Cran Fans” to give feedback on trial products.

He also talked about the evolution of Advertising 1.0 to 2.0 to 3.0.  Advertising 3.0 defined not by a “Dialogue between the brand and its customer, but a Tri-alogue between the brand, it’s customer, and everyone that customer interacts with.” He is a big proponent of “listening before engaging” with online influencers.  We actually think Traackr could help him a lot with this listening stage of their campaign development.

Wendy Harman – Head of Social Media for Red Cross

Great woman, Wendy.  She came into Red Cross during Katrina.  They brought her in to “get the bloggers to stop” b/c the blogs were generating so much negative press.  Wendy did the opposite — she embraced them and built an enormous community of bloggers/social media mavens who support and evangelize the Red Cross.  She has developped out a large network of hyper-local Twitter accounts for the Red Cross which have proven to be very popular and effective.  The big challenge for Wendy generating relevant content at the national level with this network of local “chapters.”

Todd Defron – Shift

Todd is always good to hear.  He spoke about this new world from a PR-agent’s perspective.  Some nice take-aways:

• Public Relations has never been about Public Relations.  It’s been about Media Relations.  Now it is really becoming Public Relations.  PR must work to generate and nurture the relationship between the brand and it’s public.
• Everybody counts!  Google records and indexes everything online.  A brand’s interaction with the public is now being recorded.  Everyone counts.  Every interaction counts.  Be good and be consistent!
• How often should a brand be present online?  Everyday!  Via blogs, comments, Twitter, etc…Everyday.  Don’t miss one.
• Great case study with H&R Block — Got them involved engaging on Yahoo Answers and Amazon.  Held offline meet-ups around tax time.  Got very nice responses and created tremendous SEO.  60% increase in sales of their tax software on Amazon.
• Some tips on engagement: (1) Don’t spam; (2) Don’t bore your audience; (3) Don’t only talk about yourself; (4) Don’t ask your lawyers for guidance on online engagement…if you do, you’ll never do it.
• Mass media is dead…real soon.

Andy Mitchell – CNN

This talk wasn’t that informative, but it was cool to hear the story behind the development of the CNN/Facebook platform that was used during President Obama’s inauguration (they tried to get it done for the election coverage, but couldn’t get the coding done in time!).  I think CNN, as a mass-media organization, is being very pro-active and aggressive in their use of social media.  It’s good to see…

MC Hammer

Yup, that MC Hammer.  Well, he’s just Hammer now.  He was inspiring and very excited about social media.  It was key to him remaking himself.  Look out for new album in the near future?!?

Gary Vaynerchuk

I’ve been a fan of Gary since episode #37 of Wine Library TV.  Good to hear that that he just picked up a 10-book deal with Harper Collins.  Smart on HC’s part. He’s got huge built in audience (1MM+ Twitter followers), so the risk of publishing is greatly lowered.  Here are some of Gary’s gem from Monday (quotes from my memory):

• “I’m sick of listening to arguments about whether or not social media works and if it’s here to stay.  Guys…knock it off.  That isn’t the argument you should be having.  It’s here, it’s big and it works.  Now figure out how to use it and play with it effectively.”
• “Find your passion and create content around it.  Start a site about ketchup, for Christ sake.  I guarantee if you become the top ketchup review site, Heinz is going to have $75k for your ass.”
• “People won’t start making real money in this social media thing for a while.  In fact, I’m going to be like Willie Mays.  In 10 years some young punk is going to start a wine show online and make millions doing it.  He won’t be nearly as good as me, but he’ll have better timing.  Sucks.”
• “True entrepreneurs aren’t afraid to go to zero.  We’ll bounce right back.  In fact getting to zero is an exciting proposition.  I’ll sell anything.  I’ll sell rocks!”

So that’s about it for my notes.  Be happy to hear from anyone else who would like to share their notes and thoughts (or argue my memory!).

Derek